BILLINGS — Warm and mainly dry conditions (isolated showers are possible over the high terrain of south-central Montana through the morning hours) will stick around through Thursday night as southwesterly flow takes over. Stronger downslope winds will push temperatures well into the 70s, with a few spots (Miles City- record 78° and Baker- record 71°) chasing record highs.
Models remain consistent on merging a California upper-level trough with a Canadian shortwave over the region Friday into early Saturday. However, recent runs show a weaker combined system, leading to a downward trend in lower-elevation rainfall totals for our region. The potential of reaching a half-inch has dropped to 20-40% from central Bighorn County to areas west.
A shift in the track of the controlling systems toward a less west-to-east motion has further reduced precipitation chances over southeastern Montana. Instead, this track brings a period of elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon and evening in Powder River, Carter, and Fallon counties, with 30 to 45 mph wind gusts from the south, then from the northwest behind the cold front, relative humidity dropping to 15-25%, and warm temperatures.
With the cold front delayed until Friday evening across SE Montana, record daytime highs will be possible once again Friday afternoon for Miles City (record 77°) and Baker (record 69°) before cooling down, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s throughout the region across the weekend into early next week.
In terms of the mountain snowfall forecast, potential totals have decreased, with a blend of models showing up to 6 inches possible above 6,000 feet in the Beartooths, Absarokas, and Crazies, while the Pryors and Bighorns could receive 2 to 4 inches. Primary snow impacts will be felt over Bozeman Pass on Friday night, where even light snowfall combined with breezy winds can create hazardous travel conditions. A brief mix of rain and snow remains possible down to around 4,000 feet before sunrise Saturday as the system exits.
Changes in the system have added uncertainty into the long-range outlook. Looking ahead into next week, temperatures will trend near to slightly below average. Some models continue to signal an active upper-level pattern through the week, with a daily chance of precipitation. However, there is some uncertainty with this.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
