BILLINGS — A fairly stagnant weather pattern is setting up across the region through early next week as high pressure anchors itself over the Central Rockies. This setup will keep our daytime highs running anywhere from near normal to about 10 degrees above average. At the same time, a steady stream of monsoonal moisture will keep humidity levels elevated, bringing daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
On that note—
Thursday afternoon/evening brings a MARGINAL RISK (1 of 5) of severe weather to areas just west of Billings. With ample moisture (dew points in the 60s) and strong wind shear, any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, quarter-sized hail, and heavy rainfall. Even farther west, there is a SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) for areas in Northern Park County, including Livingston, where there is an increased threat of large hail, along with the potential for torrential rainfall and a chance for flash flooding. The active weather is expected to kick off around 2:00 PM (give or take) and will likely linger straight through the evening.
Heading into Friday and the weekend, daytime highs will be getting hotter as an upper-level ridge pushes north, driving temperatures up into the 90s and a few low 100s. While this warming trend will limit the wind shear needed for organized severe storms, an unusually moist air mass will remain in place. As a result, any thunderstorms that develop will be slow-moving and highly efficient rainmakers, bringing a risk of heavy downpours. This hot, humid, and storm-prone pattern is expected to persist into next week, though there is still some uncertainty regarding a potential slight cooldown.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
