BILLINGS — Hazy conditions and lingering wildfire smoke will hold firm on Wednesday, but conditions are expected to improve Thursday through the weekend, as an unsettled weather pattern with the potential for lots of rainfall will help clear the smoke out.
Rain chances will begin to become more widespread by late Wednesday afternoon as a stronger upper-level disturbance pushes northeast across southern MT/northern WY and areas east, starting early in the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms could develop, but the severe threat looks to be limited more to east-southeast MT, where a MARGINAL RISK (1 of 5) will be in place. Gusty winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail, and heavy rainfall will all be possible. There is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for much of the area, bringing a heightened threat of flash flooding to burn scar areas and locations prone to flooding. Be prepared!
Persistent east-southeast low-level flow will continue pumping abundant monsoonal moisture into the region Thursday and Friday, pushing atmospheric moisture levels to well above normal. Southwest flow, combined with several disturbances riding the flow, will trigger widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Much of the region could receive over half an inch of rainfall, but the mountain areas and southeast MT could potentially pick up over an inch Thursday and Friday. There is a MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for excessive rainfall on Thursday and then a MARGINAL RISK on Friday. Area burn scars and areas susceptible to flash flooding should remain on guard. Thick cloud cover, widespread rain, and cool northeasterly winds will keep daytime highs in the 70s both days.
The potential remains for lingering cool and unsettled conditions on Saturday, but models are beginning to hint at a warming and drying trend.
Sunday into Monday, an upper-level ridge is projected to build northward along the Rockies due to a persistent trough positioned off the West Coast. This will push daytime temperatures back toward seasonal levels in the upper 80s and keep the chances for rain on the lower end.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
