BILLINGS — A few severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast Montana this afternoon and evening before a gradual transition toward hotter and drier conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will climb into the triple digits Saturday, bringing elevated fire weather concerns, before weak cold fronts cool temperatures back into the 80s early next week.
WEDNESDAY EVENING
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across Montana this afternoon and evening, with the greatest risk for severe weather focused over southeast Montana. Storms may produce wind gusts up to 65 mph, torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and isolated hail. Elsewhere, isolated storms could still generate gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Some showers and thunderstorms may linger overnight, especially across eastern areas. Lows mainly in the 60s.
THURSDAY
A moist southwest flow aloft and embedded disturbances will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Storm activity may continue into the morning across eastern Montana before becoming more scattered during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain hot with highs in the 90s, though not quite as extreme as this weekend.
FRIDAY
Hot weather continues with only isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected. Storm coverage should be lower than earlier in the week as the atmosphere gradually becomes less favorable for widespread storms. Afternoon temperatures remain well above normal, reaching the 90s and some 100s.
SATURDAY
The hottest day of the forecast period is expected Saturday as a strong thermal ridge builds over the region. High temperatures will exceed 100 degrees in many locations, with parts of the Yellowstone Valley from Billings to Miles City having the best chance of reaching 105 degrees or higher. A few locations could approach 110 degrees if smoke remains limited. Dry conditions and low humidity will create elevated fire weather concerns.
SUNDAY
The strong ridge begins to break down as a disturbance moves across the Montana-Canada border. Breezy to windy conditions will develop, and a weak cold front will move through the region. Fire weather concerns may persist as humidity falls into the teens, especially behind the front. Temperatures will begin trending downward late in the day.
MONDAY
Noticeably cooler weather arrives with highs generally in the lower 80s. Dry conditions are expected for most locations, and confidence is increasing that the prolonged stretch of excessive heat will be over.
TUESDAY
Seasonably warm temperatures continue with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Dry weather is favored with little chance of precipitation. Smoke impacts remain uncertain, but cooler temperatures and lighter weather impacts are expected compared to the end of the week.
