BILLINGS — Eastern Montana will see a little bit of rain on Friday morning as we start the day, but as the day progresses, the ridge will continue to build in and high pressure will keep conditions hot and dry. Expect a breezy afternoon as winds swing around from the east, with gusts hitting 15 to 25 mph straight into the evening. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Saturday and Sunday will also be hot, with highs in the 80s and 90s, but a moderate chance of rain will move in. On Saturday, southwest flow will bring an increased chance of moisture. With well-above-normal atmospheric moisture available, a passing disturbance will bring a 30–70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, highest over the Absaroka and Beartooth Mountains. Any showers or thunderstorms that do develop could potentially produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. While the risk of severe weather is low at the moment, a few strong storms will still be possible.
On Sunday, a disturbance sliding to our north will shoot a cold front through the area, bringing a chance of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. We'll have to keep an eye on Sunday to see if there's a chance of severe weather. Winds will pick up with the passing of the front, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph possible.
There should be enough atmospheric moisture to keep the fire risk mostly at bay this weekend, but keep an eye on Sunday–Monday as the cold front will introduce drier conditions to go along with the increased winds that could open a quick window for elevated fire weather.
On Monday, there's just enough moisture sticking around for a slight chance of afternoon and evening storms near the MT/WY line. High pressure returns on Tuesday, but increased atmospheric moisture will keep a chance of daily isolated afternoon or evening showers in the forecast for the rest of the week. Temperatures won't budge much, staying warm to hot in the 80s to near 90° next week.
In terms of air quality, wildfire surface smoke is forecast to be light on Friday and through the weekend, so the general public should be fine. Still, if you have a sensitivity to smoke, you'll want to monitor the quality of the air if you plan to be outside for an extended period of time.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
