BILLINGS — Dry and warmer-than-average temperatures continue again on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and possibly some low 80s as zonal flow and high pressure continue to dominate the region.
Daytime highs are expected to warm up even more on Friday, pushing into the low to mid 80s. Humidity percentages will dip to the single digits and teens, plus winds will increase with widespread gusts 20 to 30 mph, while gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible across the western foothills, bringing elevated to critical fire weather concerns. Don't cause a spark!
Models agree that a big pattern change is heading our way as we shift to cooler and wet conditions Saturday through early next week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in how things will play out.
So what is causing the uncertainty? There are many variables that we are tracking, including a trough that aims to split, one low sliding down the West Coast while another low moves east across the northern half of the US. We could also have moisture from what's left of Hurricane Rachel pour into the region, which could be a big player in this early winter storm setup.
The area of low pressure expected to slide east will push a cold front through the region by early Saturday, beginning the turn to colder temperatures. This will also have some moisture attached to it, bringing a chance of rain showers from west to east as we head into the evening.
For Sunday into Monday, confidence is growing that the remnants of Hurricane Rachel (currently off the coast of Baja California) will push ample moisture into the region. The first regional freeze of the season alongside widespread precipitation is expected from Saturday night into Monday, with most central and western areas likely transitioning to wet snow by daybreak Sunday.
The latest thinking on potential snowfall Saturday through Monday:
Chance for 1"+:
80–90% along western foothills 50% in central areas (including Billings) 10–20% in the east
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Chance for 6"+:
45–55% along western foothills 15% for Roundup to Billings & Sheridan
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Heavy Mountain Snow: 50–70% chance of 12"+ in western mountains
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Key impacts from this wintry system include hazardous travel conditions, potential tree damage and power outages from snow weighing down leafy branches, and disrupted outdoor recreation. In addition, most of the region will likely experience its first freeze of the season anywhere from Saturday night through Monday night.
In terms of total moisture, much of the region has a good chance to receive at least half an inch of total moisture (rain/snow), especially along and west of a line from Roundup to Sheridan, WY.
Daytime highs will drop into the 30s and 40s Sunday into early next week before rebounding into the 50s on Tuesday.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
