BILLINGS — As we remain sandwiched between high pressure in the southeast and low pressure in the northwest, flow from the southwest will continue to influence the region. This keeps a steady stream of disturbances moving through, bringing repeated rounds of showers and storms. Another disturbance arrives Wednesday, though the best rain chances will be to our northwest, which is closer to the upper-level low. While an isolated storm could pack localized strong downburst winds, the primary severe threat (MARGINAL RISK- 1 OF 5) should remain north and west of our area.
Both Wednesday and Thursday will be breezy, with widespread gusts around 20–30 mph and isolated gusts near 40 mph in the gap flow areas of the south-central foothills. Paired with humidity dropping into the teens and low 20s, expect elevated fire danger on Wednesday, upgrading to critical fire weather conditions on Thursday especially in the lower elevations west of Billings. Higher terrain locations that recently received up to an inch of rain will see a significantly lower fire risk.
In terms of temperatures, we’ll see a noticeable contrast across the region starting Wednesday. Eastern plains locations like Baker and Miles City will warm into the 90s (5 to 10 degrees above average), while western foothills areas like Livingston stay cooler in the 70s.
Uncertainty remains high for the weekend as models struggle with the timing and track of individual disturbances that are anticipated to move through the region. Many models keep that strong upper low parked over the Pacific Northwest, but suggest that little pulses of energy will likely shoot through the state. The big question remains on how much rain this could bring and how far east it may spread.
On Saturday, low-level easterly flow is expected to return, pumping in moisture and raising instability. If a strong enough trigger moves through, thunderstorm chances will increase. Again, there remains a lot of uncertainty on this. Be sure to monitor the weather closely if you have outdoor activities planned this weekend.
Cooler temperatures are forecast to move back in Sunday through at least the early part of next week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
