BILLINGS — Welcome to the "Ber" months!
A high-pressure block over the Northern Pacific will keep a strong upper-level low parked just off the Pacific Northwest coast, pumping flow from the southwest over the western portion of the Q2 viewing area for most of the week. Meanwhile, broader high pressure across the central and eastern U.S. will keep the eastern zones solidly under the ridge's influence. That leaves the region stuck between the two systems until the block starts breaking down late in the week. The southwesterly flow will steer a series of disturbances through the area, bringing round after round of shower and thunderstorm chances.
The first wave arrives Tuesday morning into the afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms to the region, mainly over the mountains.
Wednesday brings a better shot of precipitation as a slightly stronger surge of energy moves in, likely bringing rain across the mountains, but any storms that do develop won't be big rainmakers due to lower amounts of available atmospheric moisture. However, any brief downbursts that do occur could produce strong isolated wind gusts. The passing disturbances will bring breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday, with widespread gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible both days across, with the great chance along the western foothills. This, combined with low afternoon humidity levels dropping into the teens and 20s, will bring elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday, mainly across lower elevations west of Billings. Recent rainfall should keep fire concerns mostly at bay in the higher elevations.
Daytime temperatures will be near seasonal again on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s. For the rest of the week, a sharp temperature contrast will develop between the western foothills and eastern plains. Eastern locations like Baker and Miles City could reach into the low 90s (about 10° above normal), while western areas like Livingston could stay a bit below average in the 70s. Other areas will range from the mid to upper 80s. Depending on how the weekend forecast evolves, we could see a nice cool down heading our way again.
Speaking of the weekend, considerable uncertainty is still in place. Models are hinting that the blocking pattern may finally begin to breakdown, allowing that upper-level low to moves closer to the region and bring a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms across the weekend. Another thing to keep an eye on is the remnants of a strong tropical system out of the Gulf could be swept into the southwesterly flow and bring ample moisture into the region. However, there is still a chance the block holds on a bit longer, or the tropical moisture fails to affect the region altogether, leaving the area under the influence of the high pressure ridge and keeping conditions on the drier side. We'll have to see how this all plays out over the next couple of days, but it would be best to keep an eye on the forecast if you have any outdoor plans this weekend.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
