BILLINGS — Expect ongoing wildfire smoke across the region, bringing persistent haze, limited visibility, and temporary dips in air quality through at least Wednesday.
Most of the area stays dry on Tuesday, but a strong storm or two could pop up in far east MT late in the day. Winds switch to the north-northeast by afternoon with gusts around 20 mph, keeping fire weather concerns elevated, especially in the western half of the Q2 viewing area. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Cooler and more humid conditions arrive Wednesday as an upper-level trough sinks south from southwest Canada and monsoonal moisture streams into the mid-to-upper levels. The chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms increase significantly Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main concern with any storms that develop will be localized heavy rain (Marginal Risk), particularly across eastern Montana. Some storms may turn strong to severe in far southeastern MT, so a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather will exist. Daytime highs will cool into the 80s.
Thursday into Friday brings our best potential for soaking rains, as there will be ample atmospheric moisture available to tap into. An incoming shortwave will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of dropping heavy rainfall. There will be a Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, meaning localized flash flooding is a real concern, especially near recent burn scars. While initial lightning strikes could spark new fires given how dry August has been, the widespread wetting rain should help limit overall fire growth. Still, it's something to keep an eye on. There is a good chance that much of the region could receive half to over an inch of rain by Saturday night. Highs on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be in the 70s.
Temperatures will rebound on Sunday, with highs in the 80s, as high pressure builds back in, driven by another Pacific low setting up off the West Coast. While available moisture levels will drop slightly, there will be enough to keep daily chances for thunderstorms, driven by a few disturbances, in the forecast Saturday through Monday.
The warming trend continues Sunday into next week, as highs push back into the upper 80s to low 90s.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
