BILLINGS — Some areas (including Billings) are waking up to rain Thursday morning as a weak shortwave ripples through. As the day progresses, instability will ramp up in our eastern counties, bringing a MARGINAL RISK (1 of 5) of strong to severe storms that could produce localized damaging winds (main threat), heavy rain, and hail. Daytime highs will range from the low 80s east to upper 80s to mid-90s elsewhere.
A slightly drier air mass moves in Friday, but a shortwave trailing in behind will keep a chance for isolated thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening (mainly southeast). Daytime highs will be in the 90s to near 100°.
Intense heat arrives Saturday as moisture dries out ahead of a deepening trough off the BC coast. A strong thermal ridge will push high temperatures well over 100°. Record highs are likely Saturday, with potential all-time August records in Billings, Livingston, and Sheridan. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for much of the area on Saturday. Combined with low humidity and gusty winds ahead of a weak late-day cold front, elevated fire weather conditions are expected.
Sunday remains hot but cooler, dry, and breezy behind the first front. Gusty northerly winds across the east will keep fire weather concerns elevated through Sunday night. A stronger cold front Sunday night brings a nice cooldown for Monday and Tuesday, with highs dropping into the mid-70s to mid-80s. Aside from a few light showers on Monday, conditions will remain dry through the middle of next week, with high temperatures warming back up into the upper 80s to low 90s as early as Wednesday.
Post-frontal subsidence and upslope flow may lead to trapped surface smoke and degraded air quality Saturday night through Monday morning.
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
