BILLINGS — Monsoonal flow really kicks in on Tuesday, bringing ample moisture back into the region, so daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the rest of the week.
Dynamic lift looks weak on Tuesday, so the best chance for heavy rain/storms will stay focused over the southern mountains and foothills. Confidence is increasing for a more widespread threat of thunderstorms across the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Given that there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture to tap into, any storms that do develop on Wednesday and Thursday could produce intense rainfall rates, so flash flood potential will be heightened near recent burn scars (Robertson Draw, East Side, and Elk). Expect near-normal temperatures or slightly warmer through Thursday, with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s.
Confidence is growing that a hot, dry pattern will take hold from Friday through Monday. A strong high-pressure ridge will push into the region, mostly cutting off the monsoonal moisture, although there is still a low chance for stray afternoon thunderstorms. Ensembles suggest a system tracking across northern Montana this weekend, likely bringing breezy conditions. Combined with hotter and drier weather, fire weather risks will increase, especially for areas that haven't seen recent rain.
Daytime temperatures will also be on the rise, with highs pushing into the triple digits by the weekend, especially in eastern Montana.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
