BILLINGS — A flood threat continues Wednesday, especially near the mountains, foothills, and burn scars, before conditions turn warmer and somewhat drier Thursday. A prolonged stretch of hot summer weather then takes hold beginning Friday, with widespread 90s to low 100s expected through at least next Wednesday. While daily storm chances remain low, heat and growing fire-weather concerns will become the primary impacts.
WEDNESDAY
Deep monsoonal moisture remains in place across south-central Montana and northern Wyoming, supporting scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, especially near the Beartooth, Absaroka, and Bighorn Mountains. Burn scars, including Robertson Draw, East Side, and Elk, are particularly vulnerable to flash flooding and debris flows. Some storms may linger late into the evening and overnight. A Flood Watch remains in effect through early Thursday morning.
THURSDAY
A departing disturbance will bring a decreasing trend in showers and thunderstorms, though a few afternoon and evening storms remain possible. Moisture levels will stay relatively high, but overall coverage and the heavy-rain threat should be lower than today. High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s.
FRIDAY
A stronger ridge of high pressure begins building across the region, bringing hotter, drier conditions. Highs will climb well into the 90s with breezy west winds developing during the afternoon. Isolated high-based thunderstorms remain possible, but most locations will stay dry.
SATURDAY
Summer heat intensifies with temperatures expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees in many lower elevations, including Billings. While most areas stay dry, a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms could develop over the mountains and western zones. Increasing cloud cover from monsoonal moisture may have some influence on how hot temperatures ultimately become.
SUNDAY
Hot and mainly dry weather continues under the persistent ridge. Highs will range from the upper 90s to lower 100s. A few isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing gusty, erratic winds and localized rainfall.
MONDAY
Above-normal heat remains firmly in place with widespread highs in the mid-90s to near 105 degrees. Only isolated thunderstorms are expected, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Warm overnight temperatures will provide limited relief from the heat.
TUESDAY
Little change is anticipated. Hot, dry conditions continue with triple-digit temperatures possible across much of the lower elevations. A slight chance of high-based thunderstorms remains, bringing the potential for lightning and gusty outflow winds.
WEDNESDAY
The extended period of above-normal heat persists with highs generally ranging from 95 to 105 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, but the larger story will be ongoing heat impacts and increasing fire-weather concerns as fuels continue to dry. Climate outlooks favor warmer-than-normal temperatures continuing into early August.
