BILLINGS — A day after Montana Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines suddenly dropped his bid for re-election , experts are weighing in on what the next steps could look like in suddenly wide open race.
Daines withdrew his name just three minutes before the filing deadline on Wednesday afternoon — a move that caught many Montanans off guard. Minutes before, U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme filed to run for the seat, setting him up as the likely GOP nominee.
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Billings attorney John Heenan was one of the many Montanans surprised.
"It was a complete shock," Heenan said. "We all thought because he said he was running that he would be running."
Heenan, who ran as a Democrat for Congress in 2018, said he believes the timing of Daines' withdrawal was unethical. The decision left no time for other potential candidates to file and left the Republican nominee, Alme, seemingly handpicked by the GOP.
"It feels very coordinated. It feels like the epitome of a backroom deal," Heenan said. "I just see what happened yesterday as kind of this cherry on top of how we, as Montana voters are treated by our elected officials."
Heenan acknowledged the tactic is used by both political parties and all around the country, pointing to the last presidential election as an example.
"Nobody voted for Harris. She was just hand-picked by President Biden," Heenan said. "I don't think that worked very well."
Montana State University Billings political professor Paul Pope pointed to similar examples in other states. In Illinois this fall, former Congressman Chuy Garcia announced his retirement after the filing deadline, effectively leaving his chief of staff as the only Democrat in the primary on March 17.
"This kind of tactic is becoming more and more common," Pope said. "We could look at it like they're gaming the system, rather than letting the voters choose."
With Daines out, independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president who also filed Wednesday, suddenly emerges as the candidate with the most name recognition. Five Democrats, two Libertarians and two other Republicans have also filed to run. The primary election is scheduled for June 2.
Pope said the impact of Daines' move is amplified in a smaller state like Montana. On Monday afternoon, Rep. Ryan Zinke announced he wouldn't be running for re-election in the state's Western Congressional race.
"In a state with a large delegation like California or Texas or maybe Florida, one or two of these wouldn't be that extreme, but in a state like Montana with only four seats in our delegation, this is massive," Pope said.
Scripps political reporter Joe St. George, who's covered dozens of elections all across the country, said endorsing a successor is common, but the level of secrecy surrounding Daines' decision is unusual.
"I mean it felt like a scene out of 'Yellowstone', right?" St. George said. "Anybody who is not seeking re-election, there's always that person that would like to succeed them right? That's natural. Very few go to the lengths Steve Daines did to make sure that happens."
St. George said he was impressed that there were no leaks and that Daines' decision was quickly followed by endorsements for Alme from President Donald Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and others.
"For all of that to be orchestrated like it did, I think Kevin Costner is probably somewhere applauding them," St. George said.
St. George theorized that Daines' relationship with President Trump could result in him finding a position on his cabinet. At this time, Daines hasn't explained why he's stepping down, beyond retirement, after filing to run just a couple weeks ago.
"I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't the last time we see soon-to-be former Sen. Steve Daines on the national scale," St. George said.
With Daines out, two things are certain: the race for Montana's U.S. Senate seat is now wide open and the race will likely lead to big financial buy in.
"My prediction, in terms of spending in Montana, this will probably be the most expensive midterm in history," Pope said.
