MONTANA — Hot, dry and windy conditions will keep heat and fire weather concerns elevated across much of Montana Sunday evening, with strong winds possible in northeast Montana and critical fire weather concerns across the south and west. Heat gradually eases early this week, but temperatures remain above normal as monsoon moisture brings increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms from Monday night through midweek. Some storms could produce strong, erratic winds, severe gusts or locally heavy rain.
SUNDAY EVENING
Dangerous heat continues across much of Montana, especially central, south-central and northeast areas where highs have challenged or exceeded records. Temperatures will stay very warm into the evening and overnight, making it difficult for some areas to cool down.
Fire weather remains a major concern. Hot temperatures, very low humidity and gusty winds will support critical fire weather conditions across southwest, south-central, northeast and portions of western Montana. A few high-based showers or dry thunderstorms may develop, with the main threat being strong, erratic wind gusts rather than widespread rainfall.
In northeast Montana, a strong surface boundary and low-level jet may produce very strong wind gusts tonight, especially across the southeast. Isolated dry thunderstorms could also produce severe wind gusts in parts of the region during the evening.
MONDAY
Monday will still be very warm to hot across Montana, though some areas will be slightly cooler than Sunday. Western Montana will see highs mainly in the upper 80s to mid-90s, while central and eastern areas remain hotter, with many locations in the upper 90s to around 100.
Clouds will increase from the southwest as monsoon moisture begins to move into the region. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon and evening, especially east of Highway 93, across southwest Montana, and into parts of central Montana. Because low-level air will still be very dry, storms may produce strong, erratic wind gusts over 40 mph with limited rainfall.
Heat impacts will continue, especially from south-central into eastern Montana, where very warm overnight lows and daytime highs near or above 100 will keep stress levels elevated.
TUESDAY
Monsoon moisture becomes more noticeable Tuesday, bringing a better chance for showers and thunderstorms across western, central and parts of eastern Montana. Storm coverage should become more widespread by the afternoon and evening, especially across western Montana and areas along and east of I-90.
Some storms may become strong to severe, mainly due to damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall will also become possible as moisture increases, though hot temperatures and dry ground may limit how much rain soaks in at first.
Temperatures will trend a little lower, but readings will still remain above normal. South-central and eastern Montana may continue to experience major heat impacts, with some far eastern areas staying hot enough for heat concerns to continue into midweek.
WEDNESDAY
Thunderstorm chances continue across much of Montana as monsoonal moisture remains in place. Western, central and southern Montana will have daily chances for showers and storms, while precipitation chances also return across northeast Montana.
The threat for stronger storms may increase, with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible. Areas that receive a stronger disturbance may see more organized thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be cooler than the peak of the heat wave, but still warm to hot for midweek, with many lower elevations in the 90s and the hottest readings lingering across eastern Montana.
THURSDAY
The unsettled pattern continues Thursday with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across Montana. Some storms could again become strong or severe, with gusty winds and pockets of heavy rain the main concerns.
Humidity will be higher than earlier in the week, helping ease some fire weather concerns, but lightning and gusty storm outflow winds could still create localized issues.
Temperatures remain above normal, though generally not as extreme as Sunday’s peak heat.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
Very warm afternoon temperatures are expected to continue, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances rotate around the ridge of high pressure over the West.
Storms may produce brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning, but the exact timing and coverage will depend on smaller-scale disturbances moving through the region. Overall, the pattern favors continued warmth with periodic thunderstorm chances rather than a clean break from summer heat.
