BILLINGS — THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: The weather pattern is setting up for thunderstorms across Montana through Tuesday night. Gulf moisture is streaming northward, pushing dewpoints into the 50s and creating an unstable atmosphere.
Tonight through Tuesday evening, southeastern Montana faces the highest severe weather threat. Carter and Fallon Counties are in the bullseye Monday night, with good wind shear to create dangerous rotating storms. Isolated supercells could be capable of producing hail larger than golf balls.
Tuesday's story shifts slightly eastward as a 500mb trough moves into the Dakotas, but don't let your guard down. A cold front will trigger linear storms across southeastern Montana, particularly affecting Carter, Fallon, Powder River, and Custer Counties. Expect hail exceeding one inch and damaging winds over 60 mph as the main threats. The timing favors afternoon development in western areas before the action shifts east Tuesday evening and overnight.
WEDNESDAY: We get a break from the stormy pattern as the main weather system moves away from our region. Expect a partly cloudy day with near-normal afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 40s to low 50s for lows.
THURSDAY: Shower and thunderstorm chances range from 50-70 percent. Once again, far southeastern Montana sits in the cross-hairs for severe weather potential. The setup won't be quite as robust as earlier in the week, but any storms that do develop could still pack a punch with hail and damaging winds.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND: A dramatic turn toward summer-like conditions. Temperatures will climb from the comfortable 70s we'll experience through Thursday into the 80s and low 90s Friday through Saturday.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: An upper-level trough positioning itself to our west will bring another round of precipitation Sunday and Monday. The details remain fuzzy this far out, but be aware for weekend planning.
