BILLINGS — A smoky but seasonable midweek pattern will give way to increasing thunderstorm chances, including the threat of heavy rain and gusty winds. By the weekend, a strengthening ridge brings hotter, drier weather back to Montana, with triple-digit heat possible and fire danger on the rise.
MONDAY NIGHT
Wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest and Canada will continue to create hazy skies and minor air quality impacts across much of Montana through tonight. A shift to northeast and easterly surface winds may improve near-surface smoke in some locations, but smoke aloft will remain. Most areas stay dry, although a few very light showers could brush portions of south-central Montana.
TUESDAY
An influx of monsoonal moisture begins spreading northward into the region, providing a more humid air mass than recent days. Thunderstorm chances will be limited mainly to the mountains and foothills of southern Montana during the afternoon and evening, while most lower elevations remain dry. Temperatures stay seasonable with easterly winds helping moderate afternoon warmth.
WEDNESDAY
A stronger disturbance emerging from the Great Basin will bring a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of Montana. Storm coverage is expected to increase, especially across western and southern portions of the state. Abundant moisture will support locally heavy rainfall, while stronger cells may produce gusty outflow winds and localized wet microbursts.
THURSDAY
Unsettled conditions continue as lingering moisture and energy support another round of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall remains the primary concern, especially over southern Montana and near recent burn scars, where isolated flash flooding could develop. While temperatures remain near seasonal averages, storm impacts could be more significant where repeated rainfall occurs.
FRIDAY
The weather pattern begins transitioning toward hotter and drier conditions as a strengthening upper-level ridge builds across the western United States. Thunderstorm chances decrease substantially, though an isolated high-based storm cannot be ruled out. Afternoon temperatures trend upward statewide.
SATURDAY
Summer heat makes a strong comeback. Many locations across eastern Montana could approach or exceed 100 degrees, with some traditionally hotter areas having the best chance of reaching triple digits. Only minimal thunderstorm chances remain, and any storms that do develop would likely be dry and capable of producing gusty winds. Smoke transport from western wildfires could influence temperatures and sky conditions.
SUNDAY
Very warm to hot weather continues under the dominant ridge. Triple-digit temperatures remain possible, especially across eastern Montana. Dry conditions, low humidity, and breezy afternoon winds may contribute to increasing fire weather concerns.
MONDAY
The hot and mostly dry pattern persists into early next week. While a stray high-based thunderstorm remains possible, most areas stay rain-free. Elevated fire danger is expected to continue as heat, drying fuels, and periodic breezy winds combine across much of the state.
