BILLINGS — Hot weather continues across the region, with dangerous heat lingering in far southeast Montana today while a wetter pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in place through at least early next week. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially from central into western portions of the forecast area.
WEDNESDAY EVENING
Monsoonal moisture remains entrenched across the region, and showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from this afternoon through early Thursday for areas from Sheridan County to Musselshell County and westward. Slow-moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour, creating a heightened risk of localized flash flooding. Severe weather is not expected to be widespread today due to weak upper-level winds and limited shear.
THURSDAY
Thunderstorm activity is expected to redevelop by mid to late afternoon, continuing through the evening. West of Billings, there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Isolated storms capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to one inch in diameter, and heavy rainfall. Northern Park County, including Livingston, has a somewhat greater risk for severe hail. A limited flash flood threat will also continue where repeated heavy rainfall occurs.
FRIDAY
The upper-level ridge begins expanding northward, bringing warmer temperatures with highs generally in the 90s. Thunderstorm coverage may become somewhat more scattered, but abundant moisture will remain in place. Any storms that form will continue to be slow-moving and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
SATURDAY
Hotter conditions develop as highs climb into the 90s and lower 100s. While stronger storm organization remains unlikely due to weak wind shear, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible. Heavy rain will continue to be the primary concern, especially west of Rosebud County, which would include Billings and Yellowstone County.
SUNDAY
Little overall change is expected. Above-normal temperatures and unusually high atmospheric moisture will support another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns will persist where storms repeatedly affect the same locations.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
The pattern remains largely unchanged with the ridge nearby and monsoonal moisture continuing to stream northward into the region. Temperatures should remain above normal, though some day-to-day fluctuations are possible. Daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue, with heavy rain remaining the primary hazard through early next week.
