BILLINGS — THROUGH FRIDAY: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the eastern plains, with the main show running from Billings eastward until around 9 PM. Energy moving through a persistent northwest flow will fuel these storms, though they'll remain generally unorganized and non-severe. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies. Tonight, we shut down the storm activity, setting up Friday as a warm and dry day with clear skies and highs reaching the 70s to low 80s across most areas.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Southerly low-level flow will pump atmospheric moisture northward from the Gulf. This moisture surge creates a good setup for heavy rainfall, with current models showing a 50-80% chance for at least half an inch of precipitation and a 20-50% chance for a full inch across southeast Montana.
While thunderstorms will develop, particularly over higher terrain and southeast Montana, severe weather appears unlikely due to modest instability and shear. The main concern will be heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding and ponding water in poor drainage areas. Temperatures will remain seasonable in the 70s to low 80s despite the increased cloud cover.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: We maintain small to moderate precipitation chances across the region. Don't expect anything too dramatic, but scattered showers and isolated storms will remain possible, especially across the mountains and foothills.
By mid-week, ensemble models show the weather pattern returning to ridging, effectively shutting down the storm chances and bringing back drier, more stable conditions. High temperatures will hold steady in the 70s to low 80s throughout this period.
