GREAT FALLS — New forecasts show the globe could be heading toward one of the strongest El Niño events in over 100 years, which could have big implications for weather in Montana.
Computer models are showing a very strong El Niño developing by the summer. This phenomenon, often referred to as a "super El Niño," could have wide-reaching impacts on weather patterns across the globe.
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El Niño involves sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator. Every few years, this part of the Pacific shifts between warmer-than-normal and cooler-than-normal water.
The globe is currently about to see a major shift from the cooler La Niña phase to El Niño.
While the current La Niña phase could still influence weather over the next couple of months, forecasts show a progression toward neutral conditions and then right into El Niño this summer.
A typical El Niño is around half a degree Celsius above normal, but a super El Niño is generally more than two degrees Celsius above normal. This kind of strong El Niño only happens about once every 10 years.
Some long-range forecasts suggest this upcoming event could end up being among the strongest in more than 100 years.
A large area of very warm water leads to rising air and adds a ton of energy to the atmosphere. That can help fuel larger and stronger storm systems, leading to a domino effect across the globe.
This ocean warming can have major impacts on global weather patterns, including in Montana. One potential benefit is that it could help improve drought conditions, at least temporarily.
During the summer months, El Niño tends to favor above-average precipitation across parts of the Rockies and the Midwest, including areas from Colorado up into Montana. Overall, this pattern could bring some hope for more moisture during the summer months.
However, that picture changes heading into winter. It has already been a rough year for snowpack, and a strong El Niño could mean another year of below-average snowpack in the 2026-2027 winter season.
During El Niño winters, the subtropical jet stream becomes stronger and tends to push more storms across the southern United States. That often leads to wetter-than-normal conditions for places like California, Arizona, and New Mexico. The Pacific Northwest often ends up warmer and drier because the polar jet stream shifts farther north.
Looking back at the last four strong El Niño events, Montana generally saw below-average snowpack, especially in the mountains west of the divide. Great Falls has also shown a tendency toward below-average snowfall during strong El Niño winters because many bigger winter storms track farther south than normal.
Not every El Niño is exactly the same, and there are always exceptions.
