A government shutdown comes with many unknowns, chief among them how long it will last. Some have ended within a day, while the longest stretched 35 days from December 2018 to January 2019.
As in previous shutdowns, executive branch agencies have prepared “contingency” plans that spell out which employees would be furloughed and which activities would be paused when funding lapses. Major programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are not be affected because they are funded separately from the annual appropriations process.
This time around, however, there's even more at stake for federal workers. The Trump administration has threatened mass, permanent layoffs due to additional powers granted to the president during a shutdown. The Office of Personnel Management raised the possibility of such layoffs in new guidance released this week, finding that agencies should be allowed to deem those effectuating such employee terminations essential employees not impacted by potential furloughs.
The Office of Management and Budget determined that “agencies are authorized to direct employees to perform work necessary to administer the [Reduction-in-Force] process during the lapse in appropriations as excepted activities,” the document stated.
Democratic leaders have decried the move as intended to “ruin lives,” promising not to give in to the president's “intimidation tactics.” And a coalition of federal employee labor unions has filed a lawsuit seeking to block the layoffs, though it remains unclear how successful that effort will be.
Even without mass layoffs, the impact of a shutdown on federal workers would be significant. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that roughly 750,000 government employees would be furloughed, leading to a $400 million impact per day. Due to a law passed following the 2018-19 shutdown, all federal employees will automatically be granted back pay once funding resumes – but will have to go without paychecks for the duration of the shutdown.
Active-duty military, TSA officers, and Veterans Health Administration doctors are among those who will be “excepted” from furloughs and allowed to continue working. But the Trump administration has broad latitude to decide which types of employees are deemed “essential,” prompting concerns from Democrats and government watchdog groups that the president may prioritize those implementing his policy agenda over employees carrying out other government services.
Scripps News crunched the numbers to demonstrate the impact of a shutdown on agencies that have shared shutdown plans publicly.
U.S. ArmyCorps of Engineers:: The vast majority of U.S. ACE operations will continue during the shutdown, officials said. No other branch of the military released a standalone shutdown contingency plan, pointing instead to the broader Department of Defense guidance.
- Total number of employees: 36,610
- Number expected to be furloughed: 1,119 (3.1%)
- Number exempted or funded through other means (note some employees duplicated in this count): 35,491
Internal Revenue Service: No IRS employees are expected to be impacted by the shutdown, as the Inflation Reduction Act provided supplemental IRS funding through 2031. “While we do not anticipate using the plan, prudent management requires that agencies prepare for this contingency,” the IRS wrote.
- Total # of employees: 74,299
- Number expected to be furloughed: 0 (0%)
- Number exempted or funded through other means (note some employees duplicated in this count): 74,299
Social Security Administration: According to agency documents, certain activities will be halted during a shutdown, including but not limited to benefit verifications, processing FOIA requests, replacement Medicare card processing, bias complaint processing, and training/IT support for local offices. Direct-service operations including benefits applications, payee changes and issuance/replacement of new Social Security cards will continue despite the funding lapse.
- Total number of employees: 51,825
- Number expected to be furloughed: 6,197 (12%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 45,628
Department of Defense: The Pentagon has announced plans to furlough nearly half of its civilian workforce. “Only the minimum number of civilian employees necessary to carry out excepted activities will be excepted from furlough,” the Department said. “Only the minimum number of civilian employees necessary to carry out excepted activities will be excepted from furlough.” In addition to active-duty soldiers and reserve component personnel on federal active duty, only civilian employees assisting the Pentagon’s key priorities will remain at work. Those priorities, according to agency documents, include securing the U.S.-Mexico border, operations in the Middle East, designing the Golden Dome missile system, depot maintenance, shipbuilding and critical munitions.
- Total number of civilian employees: 741,477
- Number expected to be furloughed: 334,904 (45.2%)
- Number exempted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 406,573
Department of Education: A significant fraction of Education Department employees would be furloughed if the government shuts down. Disbursement of Pell Grants, federal student loan assistance and Title I and IDEA grants would continue, while new grantmaking, civil rights investigations and enforcement activities would cease.
- Total number of employees: 2,447
- Number expected to be furloughed: 2,117 (86.5%)
- Number exempted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 182
Health and Human Services: Dozens of government health agencies will be impacted by a shutdown. Medicare, Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance programs won’t be impacted, nor will the Affordable Care Act exchanges. The FDA will continue food and drug reviews, the NIH continue some research and clinical and the CDC will continue monitoring for disease outbreaks. But HHS will halt oversight of extramural research contracts and grants, no longer process FOIA requests or public inquiries, and the agency will stop data collection, validation and analysis on some programs. The agency cautions that “CDC communication to the American public about health-related information will be hampered, CMS will be unable to provide oversight to major contractors, and NIH will not have the ability to admit new patients to the Clinical Center, except for whom it is medically necessary.”
- Total number of employees: 79,717
- Number expected to be furloughed: 32,460 (40.7%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 59,463
Department of Homeland Security: Homeland Security, which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement and several other agencies central to Trump’s immigration agenda, will be minimally impacted by a shutdown. Law enforcement operations, passport processing, TSA and cargo protections, U.S. Secret Service protection, counter-terrorism work and disaster relief funding will remain mostly unchanged. DHS’s planning and research, policy functions and auditing activities will be stopped during the funding lapse.
- Total number of employees: 271,927
- Number expected to be furloughed: 14,184 (5.2%)
- Number excepted or funded through other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 257,743
Department of Justice: Most Justice Department work will continue during a shutdown, including criminal litigation and domestic and international extraditions. Some civil litigation work will be halted “to the extent that this can be done without compromising to a significant degree the safety of human life or the protection of Property,” according to agency documents, as will non-emergency trainings.
- Total number of employees: 115,131
- Number expected to be furloughed: 12,840 (11.2%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 102,291
Department of Labor: More than three-quarters of Labor Department employees are expected to be furloughed during a shutdown. Activities related to the implementation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and American Rescue Plan Act will continue, as will the dispursement of worker entitlement benefits, child labor investigations nad some mine inspections. But all work in the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be halted, as will offices of veteran training and disability employment policy.
- Total number of employees: 12,916
- Number expected to be furloughed: 9,775 (75.7%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 3,124
Department of Treasury (not including the IRS, Office of Inspector General or Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau): The Treasury Department plans to continue providing market and economic updates, oversight of the financial system, facilitating government payments and debt management and implementing the Inflation Reduction Act. But national security reviews of foreign investments in the U.S. will stop as will the processing of requests for sanctions exemptions. Some economic and financial policymaking programs will be paused, including those that benefit community development financial institutions.
- Total number of employees: 2,714
- Number expected to be furloughed: 859 (31.7)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 1,855
Department of Veterans Affairs: Most VA programs - including medical care, veteran benefits and Veterans Experience Office call center operations – will continue despite the shutdown. But VA hospital research, the GI bill hotline, activities in the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection and public affairs services will cease.
- Total # of employees: 461,499
- Number expected to be furloughed: 14,874 (3.2%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs: (note some employees duplicated in this count): 456,628
Environmental Protection Agency: Most employees working in the EPA would be furloughed if the government shuts down. Mandatory activities such as protection of EPA lands and buildings, law enforcement work and emergency and disaster assistance would continue. But all new grants and civil enforcement inspections would be halted, as would EPA external communications.
- Total number of employees: 15,166
- Number expected to be furloughed: 13,432 (88.6%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 1,734
Department of Commerce: About four-in-five Commerce Department employees are expected to be furloughed during a shutdown. Observations, predictions, forecasting and warning services for weather, water and climate activities would continue, as would fisheries management and maintenance of the national vulnerability database. But research by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association and National Institute of Standards and Technology would cease, as would operations for the Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau.
- Total number of employees: 42,984
- Number expected to be furloughed: 34,711 (80.8%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 8,273
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): A significant portion of NASA personnel would be furloughed during a shutdown. Operations pertaining to the International Space Station, satellite operations and the Artemis program would continue, but all NASA education initiatives, NASA TV programs and research obligations not “aligned with presidential priorities” will be halted.
- Total number of employees: 18,218
- Number expected to be furloughed: 15,094 (82.9%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 3,124
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative: The office of the U.S. Trade Representative – central to President Trump’s trade and tariff agenda – does not plan on furloughing anyone during the shutdown, finding all employees are excepted.
- Total # of employees: 237
- Number of employees expected to be furloughed: 0 (0%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 237
Small Business Administration: According to agency documents, programs expected to continue during the shutdown include disaster preparedness and response activities, credit risk management, small business development centers and Native American Outreach, among others. But several loan programs, Women Owned Small Business Contracting and United States Export Assistance Centers will be temporarily closed or halted.
- Total number of employees: 6,201
- Number expected to be furloughed: 1,456 (24.2%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count): 4,745
U.S. State Department: Nearly two-thirds of State Department employees will be furloughed if the government shuts down, agency guidance shows. National security-related operations and consular and embassy staffing will continue, but new grants, non-emergency travel, and official speeches and events will be halted.
- Total number of employees: 26,995
- Number of employees expected to be furloughed: 16,651 (61.7%)
- Number excepted or funded by other programs (note some employees duplicated in this count: 10,344
Others: Several other government agencies had not yet posted updated shutdown contingency plans as of Tuesday evening. Among those agencies with no updated plans were the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation and Interior.
A USDA spokesperson told Scripps News the agency is “prepared for all contingencies regarding Department operations, including critical services and supports,” but declined to share its full contingency plan. A major question is whether the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), often known as food stamps, will be impacted.
An Interior Department spokesperson told Scripps News, “At this time, we don’t have anything to share.” Their contingency plan will be particularly sought after as it will determine wither U.S. National Parks will remain open during a shutdown. During President Trump’s first term, he allowed parks to remain open – resulting in significant damage and vandalism. A coalition of former Parks Service officials has penned a letter to current leaders urging them to keep parks closed during a shutdown, though the Trump administration has yet to say how it will handle the issue.
A spokesperson for the Department of Housing and Urban Development did not respond to an inquiry about shutdown plans, but did defend a recent notice appended to the agency’s website tying blame for the shutdown to the “radical left.” Asked about criticism that such a message might run afoul of the Hatch Act, which prevents federal employees from engaging in some political activities, a HUD spokesperson told Scripps News there was no violation because it didn’t target a particular party or individual but rather an “ideology.
“At HUD, we are working to keep critical services online and support our most vulnerable. Why is the media more focused on a banner than reporting on the impact of a shutdown on the American people?” the spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for the Department of Transportation said, "President Trump and Secretary Duffy are ushering in a golden age of transportation – now is the not time for a reckless government shutdown. But thanks to Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries holding the federal government hostage, our work to rebuild America’s aging infrastructure will stall. This shutdown will hurt the efficiency of air travel – all so radical Democrats can give illegal immigrants benefits. When the American people have to suffer through endless delays and cancellations, they should remember who voted to cut off controller pay and jeopardize the modernization of our skies."
Representatives for the Department of Energy did not respond to inquiries about their shutdown plans.
