The price of crude oil plunged Monday afternoon, following Iran's retaliatory attacks targeting a U.S. military base in Qatar.
The price for a barrel of crude oil dropped to $67.50 in the hours following Iran's attack, down from over $75 per barrel last week.
The sharp drop could be a signal that the global oil market believes Iran's attack on Monday will be its only retaliation, according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
The fact that oil prices plunged as the conflict appeared to intensify seems "counterintuitive," Brooks posted on X, but he says it "makes total sense."
He wrote it's a sign that Iran isn't serious about retaliation that could impact the global oil supply and is "bending the knee."
There were fears that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to retaliate against U.S. attacks on three nuclear sites on Saturday.
The strait is a key pathway where about 20% of the world's oil supply passes through.
Iran's parliament voted to close it off, but it hasn't acted on that.
White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said Iran would be "foolish" to close off the strait.
The U.S. does not get oil from Iran, but shutting down the Strait of Hormuz could still impact what the U.S. pays for oil and what Americans pay for gas.
"Because our markets are so interconnected and because you have OPEC ... what happens in the Middle East and what happens to oil prices, generally also reflects back within the United States," said Abby Hall, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa.
That means an ongoing conflict — even if it doesn't involve a closure of the strait — could impact what Americans pay at the pump.
"Expect gas prices to modestly continue to trend upward over the next week or two, but it's not going to be a spike," said Patrick De Haan, the Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, an oil and gas tracking site. "It'll be a slow, steady increase."
