BILLINGS — Montana's political landscape may be shifting as University of Montana President Seth Bodnar considers challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines as an independent candidate.
While in recent years, Montana could brag about its political independence, the state has turned solid red in recent years. Both members of the U.S. Senate, along the two House districts, are Republican. However, Bodnar's potential independent candidacy could shake up that dynamic, according to Montana political experts.
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"Polling suggests both parties are kind of shrinking, and you're seeing more people self-identify as independents. But, Montana's not quite as independent as it used to be," said Jake Eaton, a Billings-based Republican consultant, on Wednesday.
Eaton, who is the president of the firm, The Political Company, has spent more than two decades studying campaigns and polling.
Eaton believes Bodnar will leverage his background in his campaign strategy.
"I think he's probably going to draw a lot on his military service, his business background and try to paint himself as someone willing to work with President Trump when it's in Montana's interest, but also stand up to him when there are things they don't like," Eaton said.
Bodnar's name first emerged publicly as a potential candidate from former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, the last Democrat to represent Montana in Congress. A message he sent to other Democrats was leaked to Lee Enterprises, which reported his concerns about the Democratic party, according to Montana Free Press.
Tester spoke of the upcoming Senate race on his podcast "Grounded," which he appears on with Scripps journalist Maritsa Georgiou.
"The bottom line is this: If we don't have folks in Washington, D.C. that represent our best interests—and they won't listen to us regardless of the party—then we need to send them back home," Tester said.
Shannon O'Brien, chair of Montana's Democratic Party, is aware of Tester's comments but remains focused on supporting Democratic candidates. Three Democrats have already filed to run against Daines.
"I'm staying laser-focused on supporting Democrats and getting Democrats elected. I'm proud of what Democrats have done for public education, for fair taxes, protecting our environment, and address the housing issue," O'Brien said.
Democrats have struggled in Montana's recent elections, losing every statewide race on the ticket in both 2020 and 2024 to Republicans. Nevertheless, O'Brien said she likes her party's chances.
"If Seth Bodnar chooses to run, and he were to run as a Democrat, I think he'd have a good shot. I think the Republicans are running scared," O'Brien said.
Eaton sees the value in Bodnar's potential as an independent candidate.
"I think he's going to have to demonstrate that he really is an independent and that he's not just another Democrat running under a different label," Eaton said.
