Continuous News

Dec 22, 2012 10:58 PM

Let It Snow!

VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS CAME INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED FOG AND STRATUS DECKS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE STRATUS DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A STUBBORN EAST WIND DESPITE THE COLD AIR MASS BEING RATHER SHALLOW (ONLY ONE GATE ON THE VAD PROFILER). SEE NO REASON WHY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS BILLINGS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. THE FIRST LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. OVERCAST SKIES IN THE CENTRAL ZONES MAY PREVENT MUCH COOLING UNTIL THEN...BUT OTHER
AREAS THAT ARE CLOUD FREE EVEN BRIEFLY MAY QUICKLY COOL. SO OUR CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS BELOW AVERAGE. I DID DROP THE FORECAST LOWS IN THE NE ZONES DOWN...BUT NO DRASTIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE. AS THAT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS UP TO THE JUDITH GAP AREA...BEFORE
SPREADING EAST ALONG THE PLAINS SUNDAY. AREAS FROM LAUREL TO THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH SNOWFALL AS SYNOPTIC FORCING DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. FROM YELLOWSTONE COUNTY EASTWARD WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDES OVER THE AREA. I EXPECT A NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND TO FORM WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF ONE OR TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP IS DIFFICULT...BUT CLIMATOLOGY AND AVERAGING THE MODEL POSITIONS SUGGEST FROM ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND. MOST AREAS MAY JUST SEE A DUSTING.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 16.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.


.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.


.SUNDAY NIGHT....MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 10. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWEST WIND
CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN THE EVENING.

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