Posted: Sep 24, 2012 2:17 PM by Ed McIntosh Q2 Weather Center
Updated: Sep 24, 2012 2:17 PM
It's time to get the winter weather outlooks from all the regular players for the 2012-2013 season.
The Climate Prediction Center is part of the National Weather Service Their forecast for the next three months indicates a 33% chance that we will continue with warmer than average temperatures across Montana and Northern Wyoming:
As far as precipiation, goes, the CPC doesn't see any major influences on seasonal snow in the area. The places indicated without shading and an "EC" means an "Equal Chance" of aobve or below normal precipitation:
This overall outlook for a chance of a bit warmer than average winter has been holding true for a few months now.
Let's turn to the Farmers Almanac. It is calling for conditions through the winter that are "Milder than normal with average precipitation" across Wyoming and most of Montana. The exception is extreme Northwest Montana that is included with the Pacific Northwest as "Drier than normal & chilly temps".
That's pretty similar to the Climate Prediction Center forecast. You can find more at farmersalmanac.com
Finally, the Old Farmer's Almanac. It's a totally different publication, with an equally "secret forecast method". Their map indicates a generally "Mild and wet" winter across our area, and "Mild and dry" in Montana west of the continental divide:
You can find more about the Old Farmer's Almanac prediction at almanac.com.
Of course, in all cases, these are designed to be general forecasts for the season, and there will be fluxuations of warmer and colder weather, and wetter and drier. Hopefully, that's where we will come in with your daily forecast.
Frankly, I take all the extended forecasts with a rather large grain of salt. However, they are interesting to compare. Let's see who does the best through the season.